Showing 1 - 10 of 68
providing a brief survey of theoretical results on estimation and hypothesis testing in regression models with infinite …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083093
In this paper we propose exact likelihood-based mean-variance efficiency tests of the market portfolio in the context of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), allowing for a wide class of error distributions which include normality as a special case. These tests are developed in the framework of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083101
literature. First, a numerically more stable objective function for the estimation of the risk neutral density is derived whose … integrals can be solved analytically. Second, it is reasoned that the originally proposed approach for the estimation of the PoD …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011161232
The capital-asset-pricing model (CAPM) is one of the most popular methods of financial market analysis. But, evidence of the poor empirical performance of the CAPM has accumulated in the literature. For example, based on their empirical results regarding the relation between market Beta and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083064
The paper develops an oil price forecasting technique which is based on the present value model of rational commodity pricing. The approach suggests shifting the forecasting problem to the marginal convenience yield which can be derived from the cost-of-carry relationship. In a recursive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083300
We study the risk of holding credit default swaps (CDS) in the trading book. In particular, we compare the Value at Risk (VaR) of a CDS position to the VaR for investing in the respective firm's equity. Our sample consists of CDS – stock price pairs for 86 actively traded firms over the period...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005082760
structural credit risk models. Using credit default swap (CDS) spreads, we find that, in the time series, average credit spreads … are decreasing in GDP growth rate, but increasing in GDP growth volatility. We document that credit spreads are lower when … volatility raises credit spreads. More importantly, we demonstrate that the impact of market conditions on credit spreads is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005082769
swap (CDS) index – we extract risk-neutral probabilities of default (PDs) and physical asset return correlations from …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005082786
estimation technique seems to matter as well. Other potential determinants - namely whether forecasters rely on a balanced or an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083176
In this paper, we put DSGE forecasts in competition with factor forecasts. We focus on these two models since they represent nicely the two opposing forecasting philosophies. The DSGE model on the one hand has a strong theoretical economic background; the factor model on the other hand is mainly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083198