We explore the implications of asset price volatility for the management of monetary policy. We show that it is desirable for central banks to focus on underlying inflationary pressures. Asset prices become relevant only to the extent they may signal potential inflationary or deflationary...

We develop a model in which innovations in an economy's growth potential are an important driving force of the business cycle. The framework shares the emphasis of the recent "new shock" literature on revisions of beliefs about the future as a source of fluctuations, but differs by tieing these...

We attempt to explain the overreaction of asset prices to movements in short-term interest rates, dividends, and asset supplies. The key element of our explanation is a margin constraint that traders face which limits their leverage to a fraction of the value of their assets. Traders may lever...

We examine pairs of large, Siamese twin' companies whose stocks are traded around the world but have different trading and ownership habitats. Twins pool their cashflows so, with integrated markets, twin stocks should move together. In contrast, the relative prices of twin stocks appear...

Several puzzling aspects of the behavior of United States stock prices can be explained by the presence of a specific type of rational bubble that depends exclusively on dividends. We call such bubbles "intrinsic" bubbles because they derive all of their variability from exogenous economic...

Simple regression tests that have power against the alternatives that. asset prices and expected future asset returns are excessively volatile are developed and performed for the foreign exchange and stock markets. These tests have a number of advantages over alternative, variance hounds...