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Over-reaction in Macroeconomic Expectations

Bordalo, Pedro - 2018

We study the rationality of individual and consensus professional forecasts of macroeconomic and financial variables using the methodology of Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2015), which examines predictability of forecast errors from forecast revisions. We report two key findings: forecasters...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480587

Long Term Expectations and Aggregate Fluctuations

Bordalo, Pedro; Gennaioli, Nicola; La Porta, Rafael; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

In line with Keynes' intuition, volatility in the stock market and in real economic activity are linked by expectations of long term profits. We show that analysts' optimism about the long term earnings growth of S&P 500 firms is associated with a near term boom in major US financial markets,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337811

Predictable Financial Crises

Greenwood, Robin - 2020

Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is associated with about a 40%...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481591

Federalism with and without Political Centralization : China versus Russia

Blanchard, Olivier - 2000

In China, local governments have actively contributed to the growth of new firms. In Russia, local governments have … behavior of local governments in Russia. First, capture by old firms, leading local governments to protect them from … present in China, but not in Russia. Transition in China has taken place under the tight control of the communist party. As a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471154

How Does Privatization Work? Evidence from the Russian Shops

Barberis, Nicholas - 1995

We use a survey of 452 Russian shops, most of which were privatized between 1992 and 1993, to measure the importance of alternative channels through which privatization promotes restructuring. Restructuring is measured as capital renovation, change in suppliers, increase in hours that stores...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473750