The effects of rainfall forecasts and realized rainfall on equilibrium agricultural wages are analysed over the course of the agricultural production cycle. It is shown theoretically that a forecast of good weather can lower wages in the planting stage, by lowering ex ante out-migration, and can...

Newly-available Indian panel data is used to estimate how the returns to planting-stage investments vary by rainfall realizations. [BREAD Working Paper No. 392]. URL:[http://ipl.econ.duke.edu/bread/papers/working/392.pdf].

Unpredictable rainfall is an important risk for agricultural activity, and farmers in developing countries often receive incomplete insurance from informal risk-sharing networks. The demand for, and effects of, offering formal index-based rainfall insurance is studied through a randomized...