French, Mark W. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2005
spot-futures spread), confirming that spot prices mean-revert and normally exceed discounted futures. However, these … percent of daily returns, suggesting other factors are important, too. In this paper, I specify a structural oil-market model …. In addition, I find reversion of spot to futures prices only when backwardation is severe. Convenience yield behaves …