Remarks at the Barclays 16th Annual Global Inflation-Linked Conference, New York City.

Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York, New York City.>

There is now a great deal of empirical evidence that business cycle fluctuations contain asymmetries. The asymmetries found in post-war U.S. data are inconsistent with the behavior of the U.S. economy in the Great Depression. In a model where business cycle asymmetries are produced by rational...