This paper explores the role that model uncertainty plays in determining the effect of monetary policy shocks on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We specify a range of BVARs that differ in terms of variables, lag structure, and the way the inflation process is modelled. For...

This paper explores the role that inflation forecasts play in the uncertainty surrounding the estimated effects of alternative monetary rules on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We use the inflation forecasts of 8 competing models in a standard Bayesian VAR to analyse the size...

This paper presents a method to estimate the coefficients, to test specification hypotheses and to conduct policy exercises in multi-country VAR models with cross unit interdependencies, unit specific dynamics and time variations in the coefficients. The framework of analysis is Bayesian: a...