This paper gives a model-based analysis of the potential macro-economic impact of European Union Structural and Cohesion Funds payments on the economies of the new Member States. The model used is a four-region DSGE model with human capital accumulation and endogenous technological change. The...

Some researchers have recently introduced productive government investment spending into Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, adding a supply channel. This paper takes a similar perspective but it also introduces the government consumption good into the household utility...

This paper analyses how euro area inflation forecasts have been affected by the financial and economic crisis. Its first objective is to evaluate the accuracy of three representative groups of inflation forecasting models (rules of thumb and benchmark models; autoregressive moving average...

The purpose of this paper is to provide a consistent and transparent theoretical and empirical framework to analyse real effective equilibrium exchange rates for a large number of industrial countries. The theoretical and empirical model, as well as the applied methodology, are closely related...

Summary for non-specialistsA bias towards running deficits is an entrenched feature of fiscal policy making in most developed economies.Our paper examines whether this tendency is in any way associated with the personal distribution of income of a country. It takes inspiration from theoretical...

We study the joint dynamics of foreign capital flows and real activity during the recent boom-bust cycle of the Spanish economy, using a three-country New Keynesian model with credit-constrained households and firms, a construction sector and a government. We estimate the model using...

This paper presents an indicator of the fiscal stance that combines features of the bottom-up, narrative approach on the revenue side with a refined version of the top-down, traditional approach of the structural balance on the expenditure side. With these characteristics the indicator offers an...

In this paper we seek to produce forecasts of commodity price movements that can systematically improve on naive statistical benchmarks, and revisit the forecasting performance of changes in commodity currencies as efficient predictors of commodity prices, a view emphasized in the recent...

I build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with search and matching frictions in order to study the labour market effects of public sector employment and wages. Public sector wages are important to achieve the effcient allocation. High wages induce too many unemployed to queue for...

Coordination arrangements should ensure that fiscal policy is conducted in a consistent manner across the various public entities and sub-sectors of general government. This dimension has gained in relevance as recent fiscal governance reforms in the European Union have put a premium on sound...