This paper proposes a framework for sovereign debt sustainability assessment based on an estimated DSGE model. One advantage of this is that it allows taking into account feedback effects of debt ratios, spreads and fiscal measures on growth and tax bases, and thus capture the impact of changes...

This paper analysis the macroeconomic effects of government support measures to the financial sector using a microfounded structural model. We simulate a crisis scenario in which the economy is hit by a severe financial shock and is subject to financial market imperfections. We then look at...

This paper uses an estimated DSGE model to analyse the factors behind the build-up of imbalances in the Spanish economy. Shock decompositions suggest that external imbalances have been able to build up mainly due to the reduction in real interest rates and easier access to credit following the...

In this paper we seek to produce forecasts of commodity price movements that can systematically improve on naive statistical benchmarks, and revisit the forecasting performance of changes in commodity currencies as efficient predictors of commodity prices, a view emphasized in the recent...

I build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with search and matching frictions in order to study the labour market effects of public sector employment and wages. Public sector wages are important to achieve the effcient allocation. High wages induce too many unemployed to queue for...

Summary for non-specialistsAn essential part of the Europe 2020 strategy consists of reforms with a medium- to long-term horizon that focus on promoting the sustainability of public finances and enhancing potential growth. Building on structural reform simulations with the DSGE model QUEST III,...

The current crisis revealed the unsustainability of private sector indebtedness levels, fuelled, in the recent past, by a prolonged period of rapid credit expansion in some EU Member States. The deleveraging process that is now taking place, although necessary, stands as a source of concern in...

The paper assesses the advisability of subregional monetary integration in Latin America by looking at EU experience with EMU and by applying the theory of optimum currency areas as well as other criteria proposed by the more recent literature. It also discusses the extent to which EU fiscal...

The Netherlands is almost a textbook-case of an open economy that is highly integrated in the world economy in terms of both financial flows and trade. Its current account has been persistently in surplus for over three decades and the surplus is one of the highest as in percentage of GDP of the...

(Papers presented at the 4th Annual Research Conference, 11-12 October 2007) This volume contains nine papers presented at the 4th DG ECFIN Annual Research Conference held in October, 2007 in Brussels on the theme: Growth and income distribution in an integrated Europe: Does EMU make a...