Risk diversification is the basis of insurance and investment. It is thus crucial to study the effects that could limit it. One of them is the existence of systemic risk that affects all the policies at the same time. We introduce here a probabilistic approach to examine the consequences of its...

The goal of this paper is to analyze the determination of countries equity portfolios and countries stock returns behavior in the context of imperfectly integrated financial markets. We build a continuous-time equilibrium model of a two-country endowment economy in which the level of financial...

This paper brings experimental evidence on investors’ behavior subject to an "illiquidity" constraint, where the success of a risky project depends on the participation of a minimum number of investors. The experiment is set up as a frameless coordination game that replicates the investment...

In this paper we show that if a very small, exogenously given probability of terminating the exchange is introduced in an elementary investment game, reciprocators play more often the defection strategy. Everything happens as if they "hide behind probabilities" in order to break the trust...

The purposes of this paper are two-fold. On the one hand, we shall provide a decision analysis justification for the Value at Risk (VaR) approach based on ex-post, disappointment decision making arguments. We shall show that the approach is justified by a disappointment criterion. In other...

Risk is shown to be based on both theory and practice. It is shown to be conceptual and technical, blending behavioral psychology, financial economics and decision making under uncertainty into a coherent whole that justify the selection of risky choices. Its applications are also broadly...

La recherche explique comment le cours des actions des compagnies pétrolières dépend du prix à terme du pétrole. La modélisation est appliquée aux principales compagnies pétrolières Shell: Exxon Mobil, BP, Total et Chevron. La recherche est originale car elle porte sur les relations à...

When a random field (Xt; t 2 R2) is thresholded on a given level u, the excursion set is given by its indicator 1[u;1)(Xt). The purpose of this work is to study functionals (as established in stochastic geometry) of these random excursion sets, as e.g. the capacity functional as well as the...

This paper considers approximating the nite sample null-distribution of a test statistic as its asymptotic distribution under a local alternative. We focus on the Likelihood Ratio test for the rank of cointegration and use nonlinearities that represent some nite sample distributional features....

Standard tests for the rank of cointegration of a vector autoregressive process present distributions that are affected by the presence of deterministic trends. We consider the recent approach of Demetrescu et al. (2009) who recommend testing a composite null. We assess this methodology in the...