We analyze the physical, i.e. non financial, determinants of the real price of crude oil by means of an equilibrium correction model over the last two decades. We find that two cointegrating relations affect the change in prices: one refers to OPEC's cartel behavior attempting to control prices...

The focus of this paper is inference about stochastic and deterministic trends when both types are present. We show that, contrary to asymptotic theory and the existing literature, the parameters of the deterministic components must be taken into account in finite samples. We analyze the...

We consider a prototypical representative-agent forward-looking model, and study the low frequency variability of the data when the agent's beliefs about the model are updated through linear learning algorithms. We nd that learning in this context can generate strong persistence. The degree of...

This paper considers approximating the nite sample null-distribution of a test statistic as its asymptotic distribution under a local alternative. We focus on the Likelihood Ratio test for the rank of cointegration and use nonlinearities that represent some nite sample distributional features....

Standard tests for the rank of cointegration of a vector autoregressive process present distributions that are affected by the presence of deterministic trends. We consider the recent approach of Demetrescu et al. (2009) who recommend testing a composite null. We assess this methodology in the...

This paper proposes a Near Explosive Random-Coefficient autoregressive model for asset pricing which accommodates both the fundamental asset value and the recurrent presence of autonomous deviations or bubbles. Such a process can be stationary with or without fat tails, unit-root nonstationary...