The “decoupling†of East Asia from its economic interactions—both in trade and finance—with the rest of the world refers to the phenomenon of a weakening of the impact of demand and supply shocks emanating from the advanced countries on the region’s economic...

The Centre for Policy Dialogue(CPD) has been carrying out the Executive Opinion Survey in collaboration with World Economic Forum (WEF) since 2001.This is the tenth survey. Along with WEF’s Executive Opinion Survey (based on questionnaires developed by the WEF) ,CPD also conducted seventh...

A dynamic factor model is applied to a large panel dataset of Singapores macroeconomic variables and global economic indicators with the initial objective of analyzing business cycles in a small open economy. The empirical results suggest that four common factors are present in the quarterly...

Deflationary expansion has puzzled economists both in and outside China. We study this business cycles phenomenon within a model of discrete time dynamics. We find that deflationary expansion could be possible if driven by an overshooting in investing and if the state of the economy maintains...

This paper provides an overall picture of the Philippine business cycles covering the period 1981 to 2003 by characterizing them in terms of volatility, co-movement and persistence. As a trend-cycle decomposition technique, the most frequently used Hodrick Prescott filter was applied. The period...

This paper investigates the relationship between capital account openness and inflation since the 1980s. It argues that widespread capital account liberalization during the last two decades appears to have contributed to the worldwide disinflation observed during the same period. The paper...

In order to assess the symmetry in the nature of structural shocks for a bloc of countries to form a currency union, long-run identifying restrictions to simple bivariate models are often used. This study attempts to assess the reliability of the estimated structural shocks produced from...

We develop a general equilibrium model with nancial frictions in which internal capital (equity capital) and external capital (bank loans) have different rates of return. Financial development raises the rate of return on external capital but has a non-monotonic effect on the rate of return on...

Although it is true that a liberal trade and investment policy is essential for attracting higher level of private investment, it is not a sufficient factor. Many developing countries (DCs) and least developed countries (LDCs) which have opened up their economies to a large extent and have in...

We develop a model of a small open economy with credit market frictions to analyze the consequences of capital account liberalization. We show that financial opening facilitates the inflows of cheap foreign funds and improves production efficiency. Reforms increasing labor market flexibility can...