We investigate two methods for using daily stock returns to forecast, and update forecasts of, quarterly real output growth. Both methods aggregate daily returns in some manner to form a single stock market variable. We consider (i) augmenting the quarterly AR(1) model for real output growth...

The past forty years or so has seen a remarkable transformation in macro-models used by central banks, policymakers and forecasting bodies. This papers describes this transformation from reduced-form behavioural equations estimated separately, through to contemporary micro-founded dynamic...

We first develop a two-bloc model of an emerging open economy interacting with the rest of the world calibrated using Indian and US data. The model features a financial accelerator and is suitable for examining the effects of financial stress on the real economy. Three variants of the model are...

The complex interaction between trade and politics is analysed for the JapanChina relationship using Granger causality tests. The purpose is to determine the presence and direction of causation between trade and political events, both positive and negative, and to gauge an idea of the lag length...

Using timeseries and panel data from 1981 to 2005, this paper examines the Granger causality relations between GDP, exports, and FDI among the three first generation Asian newly industrializing economies (ANIEs) : Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and the four second generation Asian newly...

This study examines the long-run and the short-run relationships between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Ireland. Using an augmented aggregate production function growth model, we applied the bounds testing approach to cointegration, which is more appropriate for estimating...

This paper investigates the causal link between foreign direct investment and tourism in India by employing the Granger causality test under a VAR framework. A one-way causality link is found from foreign direct investment to tourism in India. This evidence once again adds to the need for...

We investigate whether TV watching at ages 6-7 and 8-9 affects cognitive development measured by math and reading scores at ages 8-9 using a rich childhood longitudinal sample from NLSY79. Dynamic panel data models are estimated to handle the unobserved child-specific factor, endogeneity of TV...

A dynamic factor model is applied to a large panel dataset of Singapores macroeconomic variables and global economic indicators with the initial objective of analyzing business cycles in a small open economy. The empirical results suggest that four common factors are present in the quarterly...

With the reduction of the working-age population and the increase of the population dependency ratio as the main characteristics of the demographic dividend having disappeared, China’s potential growth rate decreases. And our results suggest that demographic dividend contributed to nearly...