A dynamic factor model is applied to a large panel dataset of Singapores macroeconomic variables and global economic indicators with the initial objective of analyzing business cycles in a small open economy. The empirical results suggest that four common factors are present in the quarterly...

We investigate two methods for using daily stock returns to forecast, and update forecasts of, quarterly real output growth. Both methods aggregate daily returns in some manner to form a single stock market variable. We consider (i) augmenting the quarterly AR(1) model for real output growth...

The past forty years or so has seen a remarkable transformation in macro-models used by central banks, policymakers and forecasting bodies. This papers describes this transformation from reduced-form behavioural equations estimated separately, through to contemporary micro-founded dynamic...

We first develop a two-bloc model of an emerging open economy interacting with the rest of the world calibrated using Indian and US data. The model features a financial accelerator and is suitable for examining the effects of financial stress on the real economy. Three variants of the model are...

Development of a vibrant and competitive services sector is a key characteristic of modern economies. In the developed world, services frequently account for two-thirds or three-quarters of all economic activity. The transition from agriculture through manufacturing to a services...

Development of a vibrant and competitive services sector is a key characteristic of modern economies. In the developed world, services frequently account for two-thirds or three-quarters of all economic activity. The transition from agriculture through manufacturing to a services...

While bringing positive impacts and benefits, cross-border infrastructure projects face additional challenges relative to national projects. Moreover, such projects involve a variety of technical, regulatory, institutional, and legal factors, and their obstacles constrain the development of...

Development of a vibrant and competitive services sector is a key characteristic of modern economies. In the developed world, services frequently account for two-thirds or three-quarters of all economic activity. The transition from agriculture through manufacturing to a services...

As an integral part of sustainable development, the impacts from climate change, including increasing water stress, more extreme weather events, the potential for high levels of migration and the disruption of international markets are critical challenges for all Asian countries. With rapid...

As an integral part of sustainable development, the impacts from climate change, including increasing water stress, more extreme weather events, the potential for high levels of migration and the disruption of international markets are critical challenges for all Asian countries. With rapid...