We investigate two methods for using daily stock returns to forecast, and update forecasts of, quarterly real output growth. Both methods aggregate daily returns in some manner to form a single stock market variable. We consider (i) augmenting the quarterly AR(1) model for real output growth...

This paper introduces a parsimonious and yet flexible nonnegative semiparametric model to forecast financial volatility. The new model extends the linear nonnegative autoregressive model of Barndorff-Nielsen & Shephard (2001) and Nielsen & Shephard (2003) by way of a power transformation. It is...

This paper discusses what is longevity risk, why it is important, approaches used by the West to manage longevity risk and what lessons can be learnt by Asian countries from the experiences of the West. Increasing and uncertain longevity has emerged as a key risk affecting individuals,...

This paper discusses what is longevity risk, why it is important, approaches used by the West to manage longevity risk and what lessons can be learnt by Asian countries from the experiences of the West. Increasing and uncertain longevity has emerged as a key risk affecting individuals,...

This paper discusses what is longevity risk, why it is important, approaches used by the West to manage longevity risk and what lessons can be learnt by Asian countries from the experiences of the West. Increasing and uncertain longevity has emerged as a key risk affecting individuals,...

This paper discusses what is longevity risk, why it is important, approaches used by the West to manage longevity risk and what lessons can be learnt by Asian countries from the experiences of the West. Increasing and uncertain longevity has emerged as a key risk affecting individuals,...

Structural changes in business fluctuations have been gathering attention in Europe and the US in recent years. It has become clear that business fluctuations in the US began to stabilize from the middle of the 1980s, and similar structural changes have been observed in Europe. On the other...

Trading in commodity derivatives on exchange platforms is an instrument to achieve price discovery, better price risk management, besides helping macro-economy with better resource allocation. Since the inception (2003) of national online trading on multi-commodity exchange platforms, the trade...

This paper motivates and introduces a two-stage method of estimating diffusion processes based on discretely sampled observations. In the first stage we make use of the feasible central limit theory for realized volatility, as developed in Jacod (1994) and Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2002),...

We set out to study stock price manipulation when the manipulator is in the role of an intermediary (broker). We find that in the absence of superior information, the broker can manipulate equilibrium outcomes without losing its credibility with respect to accurate forecasting. The result...