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Our current inflation stemmed from a fiscal shock. The Fed is slow to react. Why? Will the Fed's slow reaction spur more inflation? I write a simple model that encompasses the Fed's mild projections and its slow reaction, and traditional views that inflation will surge without swift rate rises....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210124
non-traded goods and raises tax revenue both through a lump sum tax and through a distortionary tax on the production of … traded goods. Even though the tax on the production of traded goods is the only conventional distortion in the model, changes … exchange rate, the sectoral allocation of production, the level and composition of private consumption, the current account (in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477047
The paper develops a forward-looking comprehensive accounting framework for the public sector.By integrating the public sector budget constraint forward in time the government's present value budget constraint (PVBC) is obtained. In addition to the familiar financial assets and liabilities,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477762
generate substantial price level inertia. (2) If price decisions are desynchronized, even anticipated movements in money will … usually have an effect on economic activity. It is however possible to find paths of money deceleration which reduce inflation … level. Goods early in the chain of production have more price and profit variability than goods further down the chain. (4 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478207
number of classical features. All markets clear instantaneously, there is no money illusion, and perfect foresight rules. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478735
I construct a simple model with sticky prices and interest rate targets, closed by fiscal theory of the price level with long-term debt and fiscal and monetary policy rules. Fiscal surpluses rise following periods of deficit, to repay accumulated debt, but surpluses do not respond to arbitrary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479269
I use the valuation equation of government debt to understand fiscal and monetary policy in and following the great recession of 2008-2009, to think about fiscal pressures on US inflation, and what sequence of events might surround such an inflation. I emphasize that a fiscal inflation can come...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462568
and monetary financing of government deficits caused by expansionary fiscal measures. Base money-financed tax cuts or … transfer payments -- the mundane version of Friedman's helicopter drop of money -- will always boost aggregate demand … consumption from the future to the present, by tilting the intertemporal terms of trade. An example is a cut in VAT today coupled …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469075
The fiscal theory says that the price level is determined by the ratio of nominal debt to the present value of real primary surpluses. I analyze long-term debt and optimal policy in the fiscal theory. I find that the maturity structure of the debt matters. For example, it determines whether news...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472043
The fiscal theory of the price level can describe monetary policy. Governments can set interest rate targets and thereby affect inflation, with no change in fiscal surpluses. The same basic mechanism describes interest rate targets, forward guidance, open market operations, and quantitative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455701