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Inflation Past, Present and Future : Fiscal Shocks, Fed Response, and Fiscal Limits

Cochrane, John H. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

Our current inflation stemmed from a fiscal shock. The Fed is slow to react. Why? Will the Fed's slow reaction spur more inflation? I write a simple model that encompasses the Fed's mild projections and its slow reaction, and traditional views that inflation will surge without swift rate rises....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210124

A Fiscal Theory of Monetary Policy with Partially-Repaid Long-Term Debt

Cochrane, John H. - 2020

I construct a simple model with sticky prices and interest rate targets, closed by fiscal theory of the price level with long-term debt and fiscal and monetary policy rules. Fiscal surpluses rise following periods of deficit, to repay accumulated debt, but surpluses do not respond to arbitrary...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479269

Understanding Policy in the Great Recession : Some Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic

Cochrane, John H. - 2010

I use the valuation equation of government debt to understand fiscal and monetary policy in and following the great recession of 2008-2009, to think about fiscal pressures on US inflation, and what sequence of events might surround such an inflation. I emphasize that a fiscal inflation can come...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462568

Long-term Debt and Optimal Policy in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

Cochrane, John H. - 1998

The fiscal theory says that the price level is determined by the ratio of nominal debt to the present value of real primary surpluses. I analyze long-term debt and optimal policy in the fiscal theory. I find that the maturity structure of the debt matters. For example, it determines whether news...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472043

Stepping on a Rake : the Fiscal Theory of Monetary Policy

Cochrane, John H. - 2016

The fiscal theory of the price level can describe monetary policy. Governments can set interest rate targets and thereby affect inflation, with no change in fiscal surpluses. The same basic mechanism describes interest rate targets, forward guidance, open market operations, and quantitative...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455701

Monetary Policy with Interest on Reserves

Cochrane, John H. - 2014

I analyze monetary policy with interest on reserves and a large balance sheet. I show that conventional theories do not determine inflation in this regime, so I base the analysis on the fiscal theory of the price level. I find that monetary policy can peg the nominal rate, and determine expected...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458052

Fiscal Histories

Cochrane, John H. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

The fiscal theory states that inflation adjusts so that the real value of government debt equals the present value of real primary surpluses. Monetary policy remains important. The central bank can set an interest rate target, which determines the path of expected inflation, while news about the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013361983

A Test of Consumption Insurance

Cochrane, John H. - 1988

that the distribution of measured consumption growth rates should be independent of variables that are exogenous to the … individual consumer when we allow for measurement error in consumption and for variation in preferences. This proposition is … tested by cross sectional regressions of individual consumption growth on a variety of variables that should not be …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476422

Macro-Finance

Cochrane, John H. - 2016

Macro-finance addresses the link between asset prices and economic fluctuations. Many models reflect the same rough …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456192

Borrowing to Save? The Impact of Automatic Enrollment on Debt

Beshears, John - 2019

Does automatic enrollment into a retirement plan increase borrowing outside the plan? We study a natural experiment created when the U.S. Army began automatically enrolling newly hired civilian employees into the Thrift Savings Plan. Four years after hire, automatic enrollment causes no...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479825