This paper gives an overview of some issues related to market aluation, focusing on the developments on the New York equity markets. The 42.4 p.c. fall in the S&P 500 price index between 24 March 2000 - when it reached its all-time high - and 31 December 2002 is situated in a very long term...

Many authors have documented that it is challenging to explain exchange rate fluctuations with macroeconomic fundamentals: a random walk forecasts future exchange rates better than existing macroeconomic models. This paper applies newly developed tests for nested model that are robust to the...

Many authors have documented that it is challenging to explain exchange rate fluctuations with macroeconomic fundamentals: a random walk forecasts future exchange rates better than existing macroeconomic models. This paper applies newly developed tests for nested model that are robust to the...

We study the asymptotic properties of the Adaptive LASSO (adaLASSO) in sparse, high-dimensional, linear time-series models. We assume both the number of covariates in the model and candidate variables can increase with the number of observations and the number of candidate variables is,...

We study the simultaneous occurrence of long memory and nonlinear effects, such as parameter changes and threshold effects, in ARMA time series models and apply our modeling framework to daily realized volatility. Asymptotic theory for parameter estimation is developed and two model building...

Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...