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Using extraneous information to analyze monetary policy in transition economies

Gavin, William T.; Kemme, David M. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2007

Empirical work in macroeconomics is plagued by small sample size and large idiosyncratic variation. This problem is especially severe in the case of transition economies. We use a mixed estimation method incorporating information from OECD country data to estimate the parameters of a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005490941

When do stock market booms occur? the macroeconomic and policy environments of 20th century booms

Bordo, Michael D.; Wheelock, David C. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2006

This paper studies the macroeconomic conditions and policy environments under which stock market booms occurred among ten developed countries during the 20th Century. We find that booms tended to occur during periods of above-average growth of real output, and below-average and falling...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352825

Inflation, monetary policy and stock market conditions: quantitative evidence from a hybrid latent-variable VAR

Bordo, Michael D.; Dueker, Michael J.; Wheelock, David C. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2009

This paper examines the association between inflation, monetary policy and U.S. stock market conditions during the second half of the 20th century. We use a latent-variable VAR to estimate the impact of inflation and other macroeconomic shocks on a latent index of stock market conditions. Our...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352826

Forecasting inflation and growth: do private forecasts match those of policymakers?

Gavin, William T.; Mandal, Rachel J. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2000

FOMC projections are important because they provide information for evaluating current monetary policy intentions and because they indicate what FOMC members think will be the likely consequence of their policies. Results here show that the Blue Chip consensus forecasts are a good proxy for the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352919

The monetary instrument matters

Gavin, William T.; Keen, Benjamin D.; Pakko, Michael R. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2005

This paper revisits the issue of money growth versus the interest rate as the instrument of monetary policy. Using a … of inflation relative to money growth depends on whether the central bank follows a money growth rule or an interest rate … rule. With a money growth rule, inflation is not persistent and the price level is much more volatile than the money supply …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352925

What do New-Keynesian Phillips Curves imply for price level targeting?

Dittmar, Robert; Gavin, William T. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 1999

This paper extends the analysis of price level targeting to a model including the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve. We examine the inflation-output variability tradeoffs implied by optimal inflation and price level rules. In previous work with the Neoclassical Phillips Curve, we found that the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005353008

Monetary policy and stock market booms and busts in the 20th century

Bordo, Michael D.; Dueker, Michael J.; Wheelock, David C. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2007

This paper examines the association between monetary policy and stock market booms and busts in the United States, United Kingdom, and Germany during the 20th century. Booms tended to arise when output growth was rapid and inflation was low, and end within a few months of an increase in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005707680

Inflation targeting: why it works and how to make it work better

Gavin, William T. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2003

because of a change in its day-to-day behavior in money markets or the way it reacts to news about unemployment or real GDP …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005707693

The nominal facts and the October 1979 policy change

Gavin, William T.; Kydland, Finn E. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2000

Gavin and Kydland (1999) calculated the cyclical properties of money and prices for the periods before and after the … inflation, the lag from money growth to inflation, and lag from money growth to nominal GDP growth. Generally, the monetary …-correlations between money growth and inflation. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005707712

Gold, fiat money and price stability

Bordo, Michael D.; Dittmar, Robert; Gavin, William T. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2006

The classical gold standard has long been associated with long-run price stability. But short-run price variability led critics of the gold standard to propose reforms that look much like modern versions of price-path targeting. This paper uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005707795