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Using extraneous information to analyze monetary policy in transition economies

Gavin, William T.; Kemme, David M. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2007

Empirical work in macroeconomics is plagued by small sample size and large idiosyncratic variation. This problem is especially severe in the case of transition economies. We use a mixed estimation method incorporating information from OECD country data to estimate the parameters of a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005490941

Forecasting inflation and growth: do private forecasts match those of policymakers?

Gavin, William T.; Mandal, Rachel J. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2000

FOMC projections are important because they provide information for evaluating current monetary policy intentions and because they indicate what FOMC members think will be the likely consequence of their policies. Results here show that the Blue Chip consensus forecasts are a good proxy for the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352919

The monetary instrument matters

Gavin, William T.; Keen, Benjamin D.; Pakko, Michael R. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2005

This paper revisits the issue of money growth versus the interest rate as the instrument of monetary policy. Using a … of inflation relative to money growth depends on whether the central bank follows a money growth rule or an interest rate … rule. With a money growth rule, inflation is not persistent and the price level is much more volatile than the money supply …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352925

What do New-Keynesian Phillips Curves imply for price level targeting?

Dittmar, Robert; Gavin, William T. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 1999

This paper extends the analysis of price level targeting to a model including the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve. We examine the inflation-output variability tradeoffs implied by optimal inflation and price level rules. In previous work with the Neoclassical Phillips Curve, we found that the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005353008

Inflation targeting: why it works and how to make it work better

Gavin, William T. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2003

because of a change in its day-to-day behavior in money markets or the way it reacts to news about unemployment or real GDP …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005707693

The nominal facts and the October 1979 policy change

Gavin, William T.; Kydland, Finn E. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2000

Gavin and Kydland (1999) calculated the cyclical properties of money and prices for the periods before and after the … inflation, the lag from money growth to inflation, and lag from money growth to nominal GDP growth. Generally, the monetary …-correlations between money growth and inflation. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005707712

Gold, fiat money and price stability

Bordo, Michael D.; Dittmar, Robert; Gavin, William T. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2006

The classical gold standard has long been associated with long-run price stability. But short-run price variability led critics of the gold standard to propose reforms that look much like modern versions of price-path targeting. This paper uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005707795

Controlling inflation after Bretton Woods: an analysis based on policy objectives

Gavin, William T. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2000

This paper reviews the inflation experience in the post-Bretton Woods era in the context of alternative central bankobjectives. It summarizes research on inflation-targeting issues, especially those associated with stabilizing the price level. Generally, inflation-targeting schemes do not...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005490896

Inflation risk and optimal monetary policy

Gavin, William T.; Keen, Benjamin D.; Pakko, Michael R. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2007

This paper shows that the optimal monetary policies recommended by New Keynesian models still imply a large amount of inflation risk. We calculate the term structure of inflation uncertainty in New Keynesian models when the monetary authority adopts the optimal policy. When the monetary policy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005490907

Inflation-targeting, price-path targeting and indeterminacy

Dittmar, Robert; Gavin, William T. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2004

In this paper, we examine the areas of indeterminacy in a flexible price RBC model with shopping time role for money …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005490959