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Using extraneous information to analyze monetary policy in transition economies

Gavin, William T.; Kemme, David M. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2007

Empirical work in macroeconomics is plagued by small sample size and large idiosyncratic variation. This problem is especially severe in the case of transition economies. We use a mixed estimation method incorporating information from OECD country data to estimate the parameters of a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005490941

The domestic adjusted monetary base

Anderson, Richard G.; Rasche, Robert H. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2000

held, and of the amount held abroad. Most macroeconomic models that address the role of outside money as a determinant of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352832

Construction of an estimated domestic monetary base using new estimates of foreign holdings of U.S. currency

Anderson, Richard G.; Rasche, Robert H. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 1997

This paper presents a new method to estimate the amount of U.S. currency held abroad. The method exploits the fact the Federal Reserve System is the major processor of currency for depository institutions. The method exploits differentials across denominations in the ratios of shipments to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352909

Perfecting the market's knowledge of monetary policy

Poole, William; Rasche, Robert H. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2000

The rational expectations revolution made clear that a complete macro model requires a specification of the government's economic policy. We argue that monetary policy should be conducted in such a way that the market can predict policy actions. An implication of market success in predicting...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360639

Forecasting inflation and growth: do private forecasts match those of policymakers?

Gavin, William T.; Mandal, Rachel J. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2000

FOMC projections are important because they provide information for evaluating current monetary policy intentions and because they indicate what FOMC members think will be the likely consequence of their policies. Results here show that the Blue Chip consensus forecasts are a good proxy for the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352919

The monetary instrument matters

Gavin, William T.; Keen, Benjamin D.; Pakko, Michael R. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2005

This paper revisits the issue of money growth versus the interest rate as the instrument of monetary policy. Using a … of inflation relative to money growth depends on whether the central bank follows a money growth rule or an interest rate … rule. With a money growth rule, inflation is not persistent and the price level is much more volatile than the money supply …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352925

The great inflation: did the shadow know better?

Poole, William; Rasche, Robert H.; Wheelock, David C. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2008

The Shadow Open Market Committee was formed in 1973 in response to rising inflation and the apparent unwillingness of U.S. policymakers to implement policies necessary to maintain price stability. This paper describes how the Committee's policy views differed from those of most Federal Reserve...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352943

What do New-Keynesian Phillips Curves imply for price level targeting?

Dittmar, Robert; Gavin, William T. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 1999

This paper extends the analysis of price level targeting to a model including the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve. We examine the inflation-output variability tradeoffs implied by optimal inflation and price level rules. In previous work with the Neoclassical Phillips Curve, we found that the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005353008

Inflation targeting: why it works and how to make it work better

Gavin, William T. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2003

because of a change in its day-to-day behavior in money markets or the way it reacts to news about unemployment or real GDP …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005707693

The effectiveness of monetary policy

Rasche, Robert H.; Williams, Marcela M. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2005

The analysis addresses changing views of the role and effectiveness of monetary policy, inflation targeting as an "effective monetary policy," monetary policy and short-run (output) stabilization, and problems in implementing a short-run stabilization policy.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005707702