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A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation

Owyang, Michael T.; Piger, Jeremy M.; Wall, Howard J. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2007

the origin of the aggregate volatility reduction. We show that states with relatively high concentrations in the durable-goods …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360567

Using extraneous information to analyze monetary policy in transition economies

Gavin, William T.; Kemme, David M. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2007

Empirical work in macroeconomics is plagued by small sample size and large idiosyncratic variation. This problem is especially severe in the case of transition economies. We use a mixed estimation method incorporating information from OECD country data to estimate the parameters of a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005490941

Biofuel subsidies: an open-economy analysis

Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu; Bhaumik, Sumon; Wall, Howard J. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2009

We present a general equilibrium analysis of biofuel subsidies in an open-economy context. In the small-country case, when a Pigouvian tax on conventional fuels such as crude is in place, the optimal biofuel subsidy is zero. When the tax on crude is not available as a policy option, however, a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008583256

Structural breaks and regional disparities in the transmission of monetary policy

Owyang, Michael T.; Wall, Howard J. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2004

Using a regional VAR, we find large differences in the effects of monetary policy shocks across regions of the United States. We also find that the region-level effects of monetary policy differ a great deal between the pre-Volcker and Volcker-Greenspan periods in terms of their depth and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360583

Forecasting inflation and growth: do private forecasts match those of policymakers?

Gavin, William T.; Mandal, Rachel J. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2000

FOMC projections are important because they provide information for evaluating current monetary policy intentions and because they indicate what FOMC members think will be the likely consequence of their policies. Results here show that the Blue Chip consensus forecasts are a good proxy for the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352919

The monetary instrument matters

Gavin, William T.; Keen, Benjamin D.; Pakko, Michael R. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2005

This paper revisits the issue of money growth versus the interest rate as the instrument of monetary policy. Using a … of inflation relative to money growth depends on whether the central bank follows a money growth rule or an interest rate … rule. With a money growth rule, inflation is not persistent and the price level is much more volatile than the money supply …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352925

What do New-Keynesian Phillips Curves imply for price level targeting?

Dittmar, Robert; Gavin, William T. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 1999

This paper extends the analysis of price level targeting to a model including the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve. We examine the inflation-output variability tradeoffs implied by optimal inflation and price level rules. In previous work with the Neoclassical Phillips Curve, we found that the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005353008

Inflation targeting: why it works and how to make it work better

Gavin, William T. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2003

because of a change in its day-to-day behavior in money markets or the way it reacts to news about unemployment or real GDP …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005707693

The nominal facts and the October 1979 policy change

Gavin, William T.; Kydland, Finn E. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2000

Gavin and Kydland (1999) calculated the cyclical properties of money and prices for the periods before and after the … inflation, the lag from money growth to inflation, and lag from money growth to nominal GDP growth. Generally, the monetary …-correlations between money growth and inflation. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005707712

Gold, fiat money and price stability

Bordo, Michael D.; Dittmar, Robert; Gavin, William T. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2006

The classical gold standard has long been associated with long-run price stability. But short-run price variability led critics of the gold standard to propose reforms that look much like modern versions of price-path targeting. This paper uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005707795