This paper argues that the tradtitional way of gauging a country's fiscal policy stance by looking at government budget deficit or cyclically adjusted budget deficits is misleading in the case of China, since a lot of what usually would be considered fiscal policy is conducted via investment by...

Although the instruments and transactions most closely associated with the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 were novel, the underlying themes that played out in the crisis were familiar from previous episodes: Competitive dynamics resulted in excessive leverage and risk-taking by large,...

We consider how judgment and statistical methods should be integrated for time-series forecasting. Our review of published empirical research identified 47 studies, all but four published since 1985. Five procedures were identified: revising judgment; combining forecasts; revising...