This paper was prepared for the meeting of the Panel on International Capital Transactions of the National Research Council (National Academy of Sciences), April 23, 1992. There are well-documented inadequacies in the data on U.S. international capital flows, cross-border holdings of assets, and...

We derive the most probable distribution of resources for a simple society. We find that a probabilistic analysis forbids both too much and too less equity, and selects instead a minimally ordered state. We give the detailed calculations for a special model where the population and resources are...

We consider how judgment and statistical methods should be integrated for time-series forecasting. Our review of published empirical research identified 47 studies, all but four published since 1985. Five procedures were identified: revising judgment; combining forecasts; revising...