(This abstract and the paper are in Turkish.) Ekonomik krizler; herhangi bir mal, hizmet, uretim faktoru veya doviz piyasasindaki fiyat ve/veya miktarlarda, kabul edilebilir bir degisme sinirinin otesinde gerceklesen siddetli dalgalanmalar olarak tanimlanabilir. Soz konusu krizlerin ortaya...

The study examines the reasons for financial crises in 31 emerging market countries during 1980-2001. It estimates a probit model using 23 macroeconomic and financial sector variables. Traditional variables such as unemployment and inflation, as well as several indicators of indebtedness such as...

This paper analyses the implications of information dissemination on currency crises in models with self-fulfilling expectations. Following Morris/Shin (1999, 2000), we introduce noisy private and public information, so that under certain conditions for the noise parameters a unique equilibrium...

Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system (EWS) for six countries in Asia in which indicators do work. Our binary choice model, which has been estimated for the period 1970:01–2001.12, has the following features. We...

Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system for six countries in Asia, in which indicators do work.We distinguish three types of financial crises, currency crises, banking crises and debt crises, and extract four groups of...

It has been twenty years since Frankel (1979) offered the classic empirical support for the Dornbusch (1976) overshooting model against the simple monetary approach model, and almost that long since Driskill and Sheffrin (1981) uncovered some important inconsistencies between Frankel’s...

Accurate modeling of extreme price changes is vital to financial risk management. We examine the small sample properties of adaptive tail index estimators under the class of student-t marginal distribution functions including GARCH and propose a model-based bias-corrected estimation approach....

While the impact of exchange rate changes on economic growth has long been an issue of key importance in international macroeconomics, it has received renewed attention in recent years, owing to weaker growth rates and the debate on "currency wars". However, in spite of its prevalence in the...

Crises, like “explosive cocktails” are made by mixing powerful ingredients. Argentina has made 26 “explosive cocktails” since 1823. How many ingredients are needed to make an “explosive cocktail”? Which are these ingredients? Which is the most expensive mix? This paper attempts to...

Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system for six countries in Asia, in which indicators do work.We distinguish three types of financial crises, currency crises, banking crises and debt crises, and extract four groups of...