In this note it is argued that the estimation error in Value-at-Risk predictors gives rise to underestimation of portfolio risk. We propose a simple correction and find in an empirical illustration that it is economically relevant.

In general, the properties of the conditional distribution of multiple period returns do not follow easily from the one-period data generating process. This renders computation of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall for multiple period returns a non-trivial task. In this paper we consider some...

In the estimation of risk measures such as Value at Risk and Expected shortfall relatively short estimation windows are typically used rendering the estimation error a possibly non-negligible component. In this paper we build upon previous results for the Value at Risk and discuss how the...

The impact of news of the Moscow and New York stock market exchanges on the <p> returns and volatilities of the Baltic state stock market indices is studied using daily <p> return data for the period of 2000-2005. A nonlinear time series model that accounts <p> for asymmetries in the conditional mean and...</p></p></p>

Review of 'The End of Poverty' by Jeffrey Sachs

In the French language, the word comptabiliteacute (accounting) first appeared in the middle of the eighteenth century. It was used in the Royal finances and its first meaning was that of accountability. Until the middle of the nineteenth century, or thereabouts, the uses of the word evolved...

This article applies a two-step conditional Bayesian approach to hedge fund risk. First, a mixture or-two normal distributions is estimated for a core asset; one distribution being identified as linked to a "quiet" regime and the other to a "hectic" regime. The conditional probabilities of each...

In this paper the modelling of venture capital decision making is being attempted, using a multicriteria decision support system (the Minora system) based on the interactive use of the Uta ordinal regression model. First, a review of the literature on the evaluation criteria for venture capital...

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of the Bank of Japan's official interventions on the JPY/USD parity during the period 1992–2004. The novelty of our approach is to combine two recent advances of the empirical literature on foreign exchange interventions: (i) drawing on...