This paper examines Romania’s external stability risks. Recent Romanian data indicate high increases in real wages, not matched by comparable productivity gains. Both the government and the National Bank of Romania (NBR) have highlighted the importance of a responsible and stabilizing...

The Selected Issues paper on Jordan analyzes the Jordanian dinar, which has historically operated within a fixed exchange rate regime. The deterioration in 2004 and 2005 reflected an exceptionally rapid increase in imports, as the saving-investment balance shifted. Following an improvement in...

The staff report for the Request for a Stand-by Arrangement with officials of Ukraine discusses economic developments and policies. Assuming a global recovery in the second half of 2009, the Ukrainian economy could be back at its estimated potential growth rate by 2011. The large financing gaps...

This paper focuses on the 2012 Article IV Consultation and Second Post-Program Monitoring Discussions with Belarus. Since mid-2011, the authorities have been implementing stabilization measures. The financial system has weathered the 2011 crisis, and banks’ capital has been replenished...

This paper discusses key findings of the First Review under the Stand-By Arrangement for the Republic of Belarus. All end-March 2009 quantitative and continuous performance criteria and structural benchmarks were met, except for the net international reserves target, which was missed by US$221...

This 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia’s vulnerability at the outset of the global crisis was its large current account deficit in the context of the exchange rate peg to the euro. At the same time, it benefited from a small fiscal...

Ukraine’s economic downturn has been sharper than originally envisaged, mostly reflecting the deterioration of the external environment. The staff report examines Ukraine’s first review under the Stand-By Arrangement, requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria,...

The government of Georgia moved forcefully to counter the economic impact of the August 2008 conflict with Russia and global financial crisis. Monetary and prudential policy easing was, however, unable to prevent a sharp credit squeeze. The economy is recovering at a solid pace, with real GDP...

Belarus’s economy grew rapidly but remained vulnerable to external shocks. Under the IMF-supported program, Belarus avoided loss of output during the global recession, contained inflation, and increased gross reserves. The structural reform agenda focused on economic liberalization, a...

The paper proposes a unified framework to study the dynamics of net foreign assets and exchange rate movements. We show that deteriorations in a country's net exports or net foreign asset position have to be matched either by future net export growth (trade adjustment channel) or by future...