The introduction of a common monetary policy in eleven European countries increased the need for leading indicators for that area. A reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference...

Regarding the trade-off between the depth and the duration of recessions, there exists a mounting empirical evidence of the idiosyncratic and non-synchronized behavior of the business cycle over time within and across countries. In this paper, I propose a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium...

The hypothesis that the behavior of firms in adjusting the number of their employees along a business cycle depends on the size of the firms has often been mentioned in the literature. Several authors argue that small and medium sized enterprises are more hesitant in hiring additional employees...

A reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference series. (2) The relation between the reference series and the indicator should be statistically significant and stable over time....

Most studies that emphasize and encourage the shift towards a less regulated and financially open system rest on the premise of a prosperous growth prospect. Accordingly, interests have focused on growth models as a framework to understand and to analyze the effects of economic freedom. In this...

This paper explores 35 years of the American business cycle with the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) as a monitoring tool using monthly data. It exhibits ten US time series, which offer reliable information to detect recessions in real time. It also assesses the performances of different and...

This paper explores the American business cycle with the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) as a monitoring tool using monthly data. It exhibits ten US time series which offer reliable information to detect recessions in real time. It also proposes and assesses the performances of different and...

In this article, the predictability performance of certain classical business cycle theories are tested against contemporary statistical methods by using Finnish macroeconomic data. Keynesian multiplier- accelerator model derivatives and neo-classical real business cycle models are compared to...