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Do probit models help in forecasting turning points of German business cycles?

Fritsche, Ulrich - EconWPA - 2001

In this paper we used a data set constructed for a companion paper (Fritsche/Stephan, 2000) where we explored the leading indicator properties of different time series for the German business cycle. Now we test for the ability of different indicator series to forecast recessions by using a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005076772

A Heliocentric Journey into Germany's Great Depression

Weder, Mark - EconWPA - 2005

-1932 depression and a long boom from 1933 onwards. Overall, a tangible fraction of interwar output volatility is attributed to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125857

Leading Indicators of German Business Cycles: An Assessment of Properties

Fritsche, Ulrich; Stephan, Sabine - EconWPA - 2000

A reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference series. (2) The relation between the reference series and the indicator should be statistically significant and stable over time....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561215

Industry Effects of Monetary Policy in Germany

Hayo, Bernd - EconWPA - 1999

This paper is on monetary policy transmission. First, it asks the question whether industries are affected differently by monetary policy shocks. Here both output and price effects are compared. Second, some industry characteristics are explored which may help to understand the existence of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561233

How the economic transformations in Europe will affect the United States

1990

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000837721

A PUSH TO GEORGE ( IN ) BUSH

DR.VSR.SUBRAMANIAM - EconWPA - 2005

. Even the currencies of poor nations are galloping upward in $ parity, because they are linked to Euro. This is due to USA …'s approach to control other nations in the world,through unilateral Army power,tie up of domestic markets towards USA, and … Pumping wealth from developed nations. A Notional Balance sheet of USA, balances only with a Loss to the Assets(Debit). This …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556940