Heisenberg's principle of indeterminacy is applied to stationary time series models. The position and velocity of a forecast are defined and are shown to be imperfectly correlated. Then a first-order autoregression is used to illustrate the trade-off between precision of position and precision...

In this paper we analyze the asymptotic properties of the popular distribution tail index estimator by B. Hill (1975) for possibly heavy- tailed, heterogenous, dependent processes. We prove the Hill estimator is weakly consistent for processes with extremes that form mixingale sequences, and...

In this paper, we develop a parametric test procedure for multiple horizon "Granger" causality and apply the procedure to the well established problem of determining causal patterns in aggregate monthly U.S. money and output. As opposed to most papers in the parametric causality literature, we...

Index numbers of prices and quantities are estimated in the framework of a two-way analysis of variance, based on the ideas of H. Theil and K. Banerjee. Topics include aggregation, multidimensional indices and non- spherical errors. This method is applied to the commodity exports of developing...

This paper introduces L-scaling, which computes scaled scores from multivariate data. We demonstrate the uniqueness, positivity and equivariance of the L-scaling weights. The relationship of L-scaling to ANOVA and principal components is explained, robustness and inference are discussed, and an...

The universal method for testing linearity against smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) alternatives is the linearization of the STAR model around the null nuisance parameter value, and performing F-tests on polynomial regressions in the spirit of the RESET test. Polynomial regressors,...