In this paper we analyze the asymptotic properties of the popular distribution tail index estimator by B. Hill (1975) for possibly heavy- tailed, heterogenous, dependent processes. We prove the Hill estimator is weakly consistent for processes with extremes that form mixingale sequences, and...

In this paper, we develop a parametric test procedure for multiple horizon "Granger" causality and apply the procedure to the well established problem of determining causal patterns in aggregate monthly U.S. money and output. As opposed to most papers in the parametric causality literature, we...

The universal method for testing linearity against smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) alternatives is the linearization of the STAR model around the null nuisance parameter value, and performing F-tests on polynomial regressions in the spirit of the RESET test. Polynomial regressors,...

This paper investigates the determinants of the flows out of employment in Poland using multinomial logit model based on the individual LFS panel data covering the 1997-2004 period. It focuses on the influence of the personal characteristics, macroeconomic environment, industry restructuring and...

This paper presents the multinomial logit analysis based on the individual Polish LFS data stretched over the 1997-2004 period. It's main goal is to scrutinize the determinants of outflows from unemployment at the time when the two shocks have affected the Polish economy and labor market. It...

This publication is a non-technical report prepared for Polish Ministry of Economy and Labor. The main goal is to present a comprehensive statistical and econometric analysis of employment, unemployment and participation in Poland in the period 1998-2004 and confront Polish experiences with...