This paper analyzes the impact of news, oil prices, and international financial market developments on daily returns on Russian bond and stock markets. First, there is some persistence in both bond and stock market returns. Second, we find that U.S. stock market returns Granger-cause Russian...

This paper analyzes the impact of news, oil prices, and international financial market developments on daily returns on Russian bond and stock markets. First, regarding returns, energy news affects returns, while news from the war in Chechnya is not significant. Market volatility does not appear...

In this paper we analyze the asymptotic properties of the popular distribution tail index estimator by B. Hill (1975) for possibly heavy- tailed, heterogenous, dependent processes. We prove the Hill estimator is weakly consistent for processes with extremes that form mixingale sequences, and...

In this paper, we develop a parametric test procedure for multiple horizon "Granger" causality and apply the procedure to the well established problem of determining causal patterns in aggregate monthly U.S. money and output. As opposed to most papers in the parametric causality literature, we...

The universal method for testing linearity against smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) alternatives is the linearization of the STAR model around the null nuisance parameter value, and performing F-tests on polynomial regressions in the spirit of the RESET test. Polynomial regressors,...

This paper analyses subjective economic well-being in several Eastern European countries from 1991 to 1995. Economic well-being explains a significant part of the variation in overall life satisfaction of Eastern Europeans. In an ordered logit model, the determinants of subjective economic...

The paper empirically investigates whether people's attitude towards the progress in political transformation in Eastern Europe are influenced by economic factors. Thereby it addresses the question of independence between economic and political system. Using a large panel data set, containing...

This paper looks at public support for the creation of a market economy in Eastern Europe. As a data base, the Central and Eastern Eurobarometers surveys are employed, covering up to 21 countries over a time period of 1990-96 and totalling more than 100000 observations on individuals. The...