We have collected data on the one-year-ahead income expectations of members of American households in our Survey of Economic Expectations (SEE), a module of a national continuous telephone survey conducted at the University of Wisconsin. The income- expectations questions take this form: "What...

Censoring of outcomes (selection) is a common consequence of survey nonresponse and attrition in panels, and has received much attention. Joint censoring of regressors and outcomes is also common, but it has remained unexplored. This paper shows that the problem of identification when regressors...

This paper considers anew the simultaneity problem that arises when observations of transactions are used to study the demand behavior of price- taking consumers. Simultaneity is shown to be a problem of censored outcomes. This fact is used to obtain a basic negative finding on identification in...

In this paper we analyze the asymptotic properties of the popular distribution tail index estimator by B. Hill (1975) for possibly heavy- tailed, heterogenous, dependent processes. We prove the Hill estimator is weakly consistent for processes with extremes that form mixingale sequences, and...

In this paper, we develop a parametric test procedure for multiple horizon "Granger" causality and apply the procedure to the well established problem of determining causal patterns in aggregate monthly U.S. money and output. As opposed to most papers in the parametric causality literature, we...

We report here on the design and first application of an interactive computer-administered personal interview (CAPI) survey eliciting from high school students and college undergraduates their expectations of the income they would earn if they were to complete different levels of schooling. We...

Survey nonresponse makes identification of population statistics problematic. Except in special cases, identification is possible only if one makes untestable assumptions about the distribution of the missing data. However, non-response does not preclude identification of bounds on population...

The universal method for testing linearity against smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) alternatives is the linearization of the STAR model around the null nuisance parameter value, and performing F-tests on polynomial regressions in the spirit of the RESET test. Polynomial regressors,...