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The Estimation of the NAIRU and the Effect of Permanent Sectoral Employment Reallocation. The Italian Evidence.

Maro, Vincenzo Di - EconWPA - 2002

This paper analyses the NAIRU making use of a cointegrated VAR and of Italian labour market data. We show that a cointegrated VAR represents a statistically adequate (using Aris Spanos's terminology) approach to the estimation of the NAIRU. This is an effective way to overcome several problems...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005062554

Dynamic paths of the European economy: simulations using an EU aggregate model

Bagnai, Alberto; Carlucci, Francesco - EconWPA - 2002

Using an aggregate econometric model for the EU we investigate by simulation methods some dynamic paths of the European …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005119065

New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics

Jr, Thomas M Fullerton; Araki, Eiichi - EconWPA - 2004

An overview of modeling and forecasting methodologies for price trends and other macroeconomic variables in Latin America is provided. Five approaches are reviewed within the time series and econometric traditions from which they are selected. Each method is reviewed within the context of data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005118751

A Toolkit for Optimizing Functions in Economics

Goffe, William L. - EconWPA - 1997

Optimization algorithms must be among the most common numerical methods used by economists. Yet, there is surprisingly little guidance on choosing the appropriate one. This problem is most notable with regard to conventional versus global optimizers. Typically, a global optimizer is used when a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005134567

Quel prix pour les options UMTS? Une approche par les options réelles.

Bessière, Véronique; Kaestner, Michael - EconWPA - 2005

Cet article présente une méthodologie d’évaluation des licences UMTS en utilisant un modèle d’options réelles. L’acquisition d’une licence est perçue comme donnant droit à entreprendre les investissements d’infrastructure du réseau, que la firme peut différer dans le temps. La...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005134911

Risk Measurement: An Introduction to Value at Risk

Linsmeier, Thomas J.; Pearson, Neil D. - EconWPA - 1996

methods for computing it: historical simulation; the variance-covariance method; and Monte Carlo or stochastic simulation. We …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005413040

The macroeconomic impacts of a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak: an information paper for Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet

Black, Melleny; Gereben, Áron; Woolford, Ian - EconWPA - 2004

This memorandum provides a scenario analysis of the likely macroeconomic impacts of a limited foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in New Zealand. It is worth stressing at the outset that it is not a forecast, nor a ‘central’ scenario, but an exercise to gauge broad magnitudes and to trace...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556174

Agricultural policies and farm structures - agent-based simulation and application to EU-policy reform

Happe, Kathrin - EconWPA - 2005

impacts on regional structural change. At the centre of the thesis is the development of the spatial and dynamic simulation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005118932

Inflation Targeting: to Forecast or to Simulate

Skorepa, Michal; Kotlan, Viktor - EconWPA - 2003

two basic ways of assessing future inflation: forecast and simulation. A forecast is the most likely picture of the future …. In a forecast, all agents are assumed to behave in the most likely way. A simulation, on the other hand, is the most … differentiating between a forecast and a simulation, we discuss the pros and cons of using the two ways of assessing future inflation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561292

Innovazione tecnologica e offerta di skills:una simulazione

Scarlato, M.; Cenci, M. - EconWPA - 2004

In this paper a dynamic stochastic model is used to simulate the matching process between skills demand and supply in a segmented labor market of a typical developing area where labor market frictions are pervasive. We address the issue of the emergence of a “bad” outcome i.e. equilibrium...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561504