This paper develops a framework for analyzing the outcome of experiments carried out on forward-looking subjects. Natural experiments, unexpected policy changes, and true experiments are all included in the framework as special cases. These concepts are defined in conjunction with explicit...

We consider optimization problems involving coherent risk measures. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions of optimality for these problems, and we discuss the nature of the nonanticipativity constraints. Next, we introdice dynamic risk measures, and we formulate multistage optimization...

We introduce an axiomatic definition of a conditional convex risk mapping. By employing the techniques of conjugate duality we derive properties of conditional risk mappings. In particular, we prove a representation theorem for conditional risk mappings in terms of conditional expectations. We...

This paper empirically examines the life-time joint decision problem of marriage, childbearing, and labor force participation for women in Japan, motivated by the recent decrease in the number of marriages and the total fertility rate. Using the 1993-95 Japanese Panel Surveys of Consumption, the...

This paper analyses the NAIRU making use of a cointegrated VAR and of Italian labour market data. We show that a cointegrated VAR represents a statistically adequate (using Aris Spanos's terminology) approach to the estimation of the NAIRU. This is an effective way to overcome several problems...

An overview of modeling and forecasting methodologies for price trends and other macroeconomic variables in Latin America is provided. Five approaches are reviewed within the time series and econometric traditions from which they are selected. Each method is reviewed within the context of data...

An analytical innovation enhances microeconomics, enabling it to answer all questions of macroeconomics. It combines the production and consumption decisions of the individual in one model. For each individual, it identifies the customers of what he sells, and the suppliers of what he buys. It...

Many European countries have faced the erosion of the competitive advantage in the international market with a mixed strategy of productivity increase at home and labour cost reduction abroad, through the international fragmentation of production and subcontracting in low wage countries. Italy...

This paper estimates a constant returns to scale agricultural production function of the three basic factors of production. Such a function is a useful tool for macroeconomic, growth, and development studies. It uses the shares approach that Solow used in 1957 and very disaggregated Canadian...

Review of Peter J. Montiel 'Macroeconomics in Emerging Markets'