The new method of system dynamics, Method of System Potential (MSP), is applied for examination of long-term and short-term dynamics of Economic System. According to MSP two ways of long-term development of a system exist: (1) cyclical and (2) noncyclical dynamics of efficiency index of a system...

The new method of system dynamics, Method of System Potential (MSP), is applied for examination of long-term and short-term dynamics of the Economic System. According to MSP two ways of long-term development of a system exist: (1) cyclical and (2) noncyclical dynamics of efficiency index of a...

We use a set of established growth models, which simultaneously include human capital and R&D, to show that the effect of mortality rate in human capital accumulation is quantitatively more important than the effect of perfectly guaranteed patents on research. First, we show that the effect of...

The author argues that a policy of devaluation imposed on African economies in compliance with real exchange rate rules contradicts the inflation objectives of fiscal stabilisation because by devaluing a currency at every instance of inflation, it implies that the exchange rate is indexed to the...

The introduction of a common monetary policy in eleven European countries increased the need for leading indicators for that area. A reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference...

Regarding the trade-off between the depth and the duration of recessions, there exists a mounting empirical evidence of the idiosyncratic and non-synchronized behavior of the business cycle over time within and across countries. In this paper, I propose a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium...

In this paper we used a data set constructed for a companion paper (Fritsche/Stephan, 2000) where we explored the leading indicator properties of different time series for the German business cycle. Now we test for the ability of different indicator series to forecast recessions by using a...

The paper analyzes two questions: (i) the effect of a monetary policy shock on the business cycle and (ii) the extent to which a shift in a monetary policy affects the dynamics of business cycle. Unlike previous literature, to answer these questions, we measure cycle movements by calculating an...

We investigate the shape of the Italian personal income distribution using microdata from the Survey on Household Income and Wealth, made publicly available by the Bank of Italy for the years 1977-2002. We find that the upper tail of the distribution is consistent with a Pareto power-law type...