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Modelling Possible Impacts of GM Crops on Australian Trade

Stone, Susan; Matysek, Anna; Dolling, Andrew - EconWPA - 2003

This paper looks at the impact on Australia’s trade in crops (non-wheat grains and oilseeds) where GM technology has been introduced. The model includes assumptions about the productivity gains of GM crops, possible consumer responses and regulatory costs for Australia and its major trading...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005407855

STOCK MARKET VALUATION IN THE UNITED STATES

BISCIARI, Patrick; DURRE, Alain; NYSSENS, Alain - EconWPA - 2003

This paper gives an overview of some issues related to market aluation, focusing on the developments on the New York equity markets. The 42.4 p.c. fall in the S&P 500 price index between 24 March 2000 - when it reached its all-time high - and 31 December 2002 is situated in a very long term...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125064

The Estimation of the NAIRU and the Effect of Permanent Sectoral Employment Reallocation. The Italian Evidence.

Maro, Vincenzo Di - EconWPA - 2002

This paper analyses the NAIRU making use of a cointegrated VAR and of Italian labour market data. We show that a cointegrated VAR represents a statistically adequate (using Aris Spanos's terminology) approach to the estimation of the NAIRU. This is an effective way to overcome several problems...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005062554

New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics

Jr, Thomas M Fullerton; Araki, Eiichi - EconWPA - 2004

An overview of modeling and forecasting methodologies for price trends and other macroeconomic variables in Latin America is provided. Five approaches are reviewed within the time series and econometric traditions from which they are selected. Each method is reviewed within the context of data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005118751

The New Italian Road Code and the virtues of the ‘shame lane’

Richiardi, Matteo - EconWPA - 2004

In July 2003 a new Road Code was approved by the Italian parliament. Among many reforms whose validity is not questioned here, the new law states that on three-lane motorways the right lane should not be reserved anymore to slow vehicles alone. As in two-lane roads, all vehicles must now drive...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005413007

Risk Measurement: An Introduction to Value at Risk

Linsmeier, Thomas J.; Pearson, Neil D. - EconWPA - 1996

methods for computing it: historical simulation; the variance-covariance method; and Monte Carlo or stochastic simulation. We …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005413040

Firm and Industry Level Profit Efficiency Analysis Under Incomplete Price Data: A Nonparametric Approach based on Absolute and Uniform Shadow Prices

Kuosmanen, Timo; Kortelainen, Mika; Sipiläinen, Timo; … - EconWPA - 2005

We discuss the nonparametric approach to profit efficiency analysis at the firm and industry levels in the absence of complete price information, and propose two new insights. First, choosing one commodity (whose price is known) as a numeraire good enables us to measure profit inefficiency in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005413294

The macroeconomic impacts of a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak: an information paper for Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet

Black, Melleny; Gereben, Áron; Woolford, Ian - EconWPA - 2004

This memorandum provides a scenario analysis of the likely macroeconomic impacts of a limited foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in New Zealand. It is worth stressing at the outset that it is not a forecast, nor a ‘central’ scenario, but an exercise to gauge broad magnitudes and to trace...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556174

STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY: LIKELIHOOD INFERENCE AND COMPARISON WITH ARCH MODELS

Kim, Sangjoon; Shephard, Neil; Chib, Siddhartha - EconWPA - 1996

. This approach is compared with several alternative methods using real data. The paper also develops simulation- based …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556396

Inflation Targeting: to Forecast or to Simulate

Skorepa, Michal; Kotlan, Viktor - EconWPA - 2003

two basic ways of assessing future inflation: forecast and simulation. A forecast is the most likely picture of the future …. In a forecast, all agents are assumed to behave in the most likely way. A simulation, on the other hand, is the most … differentiating between a forecast and a simulation, we discuss the pros and cons of using the two ways of assessing future inflation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561292