The years following the Second World War were those of the greatest economic growth that Europe had ever seen. If the countries of the Iberian Peninsula, neutral in the conflict and ruled by dictatorial regimes, enjoyed that growth and had participated in the convergence phenomenon, Ireland,...

The years following the Second World War were those of the greatest economic growth that Europe had ever seen. If the countries of the Iberian Peninsula, neutral in the conflict and ruled by dictatorial regimes, enjoyed that growth and had participated in the convergence phenomenon, Ireland,...

Most opportunistic-type models of political business cycles tend to posit a given objective for incumbents: maximisation of re-election chances. Though taking an opportunistic view too, we suggest a new explanation for a fiscal policy cycle: the incumbent’s concern with her own welfare in...

This paper compares the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of five classes of time series models for market shares of the six most important Portuguese car market competitors over differents horizons. As representative time series models I employ a random-walk with drift (Naive), a univariate...

The object of this paper is to develop an Early Warning System of Macro Vulnerability for several Latin American countries based on previous work of Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1997) and Kaminsky (1998). We build a composite leading indicator that signals macroeconomic vulnerability, showing...

This paper assesses empirically whether global risk aversion (GRA) and some if its determinants (US economic growth and the US long term interest rates) explain developments in Latin American sovereign spreads. We find that GRA is significant and positively related to Latin American sovereign...