Deterministic simulations with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s core FPS model show how New Zealand’s broad macroeconomic environment might have evolved over the 1990s, if a US nominal yield curve and US TWI exchange rate movements under a common currency arrangement had been...

This paper gives an overview of some issues related to market aluation, focusing on the developments on the New York equity markets. The 42.4 p.c. fall in the S&P 500 price index between 24 March 2000 - when it reached its all-time high - and 31 December 2002 is situated in a very long term...

This paper looks at the impact on Australia’s trade in crops (non-wheat grains and oilseeds) where GM technology has been introduced. The model includes assumptions about the productivity gains of GM crops, possible consumer responses and regulatory costs for Australia and its major trading...

This paper employs new estimates of US currency held abroad to determine the degree of unofficial or de facto dollarization that has taken place in key countries around the world. Empirical estimates of foreign currency in circulation permits refined definitions of unofficial dollarization...

This paper examines the relevance of the monetary approach for exchange rate behaviour in India, unde rthe managed float regime. It finds supprot for purchaisng power parity in traded goods and that the monetary approach provdies a reasonable description of exchange rate behaviour in the period...

This paper tests for mean-reversion in real exchange rates for India during the recent (managed) float period yield evidence of mean- reversion in the real exchange rate series constructed with the consumer price index as deflator as well as for a series constructed using the ratio of wholesale...

The paper provides an empirical analysis of the demand for money function in Uganda. It argues that monetary policy: based on monetarist views of the dynamics of a less developed economy is, to say the least, ineffective in regulating the economy. An error correction model is used to examine the...

The aim of this paper is to provide evidence about the existence or non- existence of structural breaks in exchange rates of European transition economies. We used the testing procedure of Vogelsang (1997) that allows for detecting a break at an unknown date in the trend function of a dynamic...

The structural vector autoregression (SVAR) has become a central tool for research in empirical macroeconomics. Because the vast majority of these models are exactly identified, researchers have traditionally relied upon the informal use of prior information to compare alternative...

This paper models an inflation forecast density framework that closely resembles actual policy makers behaviour regarding the determination of the modal point, the uncertainty and asymmetry in the inflation forecasts. The framework combines policy makers prior information about these parameters...