This paper asks two questions. First, can we detect empirically whether the shocks recovered from the estimates of a structural VAR are fundamental? Second, can the problem of non-fundamentalness be solved by considering additional information? The answer to the firrst question is 'yes' and that...

Not so much and we should not, at least not yet.

In this paper we consider inflation and government debt dynamics when monetary policy employs a global interest rate rule and private agents’ forecasts using adaptive learning. Because of the zero lower bound on interest rates, active interest rate rules are known to imply the existence of a...

We review the recent work on interest rate setting, which emphasizes the desirability of designing policy to ensure stability under private agent learning. Appropriately designed expectations based rules can yield optimal rational expectations equilibria that are both determinate and stable...

Using New Keynesian models, we compare Friedman’s k-percent money supply rule to optimal interest rate setting, with respect to determinacy, stability under learning and optimality. We first review the recent literature. Open-loop interest rate rules are subject to indeterminacy and...