Exchange rate forecasts are generated using some popular monetary models of exchange rates, in conjunction with several estimation techniques. We propose an alternative set of criteria for evaluating forecast rationality, which entails the following requirements: the forecast and the actual...

This paper examines whether output per capita in 126 countries is better described as trend or difference stationary using formal statistical tests. Appropriate finite-sample critical values are constructed to evaluate the test results. Depending upon whether one uses solely a test with a trend...

This paper examines whether test results characterizing per capita output as either trend or difference stationary are sensitive to whether output is valued in domestic currency terms, or in some international numeraire, such as the Summers and Heston (1991) international dollar. Using the...

This paper adopts a different approach to the study of the persistence of U.S. GNP. First, this paper uses a more powerful version of the ADF test developed by Elliot, Rothenberg and Stock (1992). Second, we also examine the results from a unit root test that has trend stationarity as the null...