Consider a government that adopts a program, sees a noisy signal about its success, and decides whether to continue the program. Suppose further that the success of a program is greater if people think it will be continued. This paper considers the optimal decision rule for continuing the...

In 1975 the United States government required automobile manufacturers to increase the corporate average fuel economy of their products. Why were such CAFE regulations more effective than increases in the price of gasoline in improving fuel economy? Our answer focuses on myopia by consumers,...