This paper incorporates informal sector and efficiency wage relation in a Harris-Todaro econmy under differential production structure. The simultaneous existence of the urban informal sector and the urban unemployment has been explained interms of such efficiency wage relation. Two different...

This paper proposes to model the error term in smooth transition autoregressive target zone model as Gaussian with stochastic volatility (STARTZ-SV) or as Student-t with GARCH volatility (STARTZ-TGARCH). Using the dynamics of Norwegian krone exchange rate index, we show that both models produce...

This paper constructs long-term forecasts of energy prices using a reduced form model of shifting trend developed by Pindyck (1999). A Gibbs sampling algorithm is developed to estimate models with a shifting trend line which are used to construct 10-period-ahead and 15-period ahead forecasts. An...

This paper is intended to give some alternative positive suggestion on how to cope with the must of the cutting off the oil subsidy domestically. The problem that faced by the government is that the compensation fund will hardly enjoyed by the poor, and moreover it is hard to watch out the whole...

The development of competitive and efficient agricultural structures has been one of the central goals of agricultural policy making in addition to ensuring a fair standard of living for farmers. To achieve these goals, the agricultural sector in most industrialised nations has long been the...

Using an aggregate econometric model for the EU we investigate by simulation methods some dynamic paths of the European economy in the next five years under alternative hypotheses concerning the growth of world demand, the European currency/USD exchange rate, and the monetary policy.

A common finding in the empirical literature is that financial volatility exhibits high persistence, or slow mean reversion of the order of months. We present evidence that financial volatility data contains more than a single time scale. After showing that the expectation of the sum of the...

A reduction of trade barriers will influence the overall scale of agricultural activities, the structure of agricultural production in different countries, the mix of inputs and outputs, the production technology, and the regulatory framework. These adjustments, in turn, will impact on the...

The interest rate and the rate of economic growth are often regarded as roughly constant as economies grow. Moreover, the agricultural sector and rural population typically shrink. We show that an otherwise standard growth model that includes a backward and an advanced sector can account for...

The aim of this paper is to provide evidence about the existence or non- existence of structural breaks in exchange rates of European transition economies. We used the testing procedure of Vogelsang (1997) that allows for detecting a break at an unknown date in the trend function of a dynamic...