This paper examines the long-run effects of supply shocks (such as oil shocks) on inflation in the United States. The … persistence of supply shocks in U.S. inflation fell considerably during the period of Volcker’s disinflation (1979-1982). My … the behavior of inflation expectations - agents expected shocks to persist in the pre-Volcker period, but not in the post …

SINCE 1930, EXPECTATIONS HAVE PLAYED AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN ECONOMIC THEORY AND THIS IS BECAUSE ECONOMICS IS GENERALLY … EXPECTATIONS THEORY WILL MAKE A MORE SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION TO ECONOMICS(AND IN PARTICULAR, MONETARY ECONOMICS) IN THE IMPETUS IT …

good approximation of U.S. inflation dynamics. By contrast, if the same estimates are constrained to yield a unique stable …

Differences in growth, productivity and inflation levels are going to be a prominent feature of the future of EMU, as …

This paper develops and estimates an unobserved components model for purposes of monetary policy analysis and inflation …

This study presents a framework for extracting long-run GDP growth and inflation expectations from financial market … inflation expectations for the euro area and for the United States. …

. However, we find a predominance of adaptive expectations in shaping the future paths of inflation ad output gap. Our results … also suggest that the Fed has followed a ’Strict Inflation Targeting’ strategy under Greenspan’s regime. …

This paper considers a sticky price model with a cash-in-advance constraint where agents forecast inflation rates with …. While average output and inflation result the same as under rational expectations, higher moments differ substantially …: output and inflation show persistence, inflation responds sluggishly to nominal disturbances, and the dynamic correlations of …

inflation declines smoothly over time whilst interest rates are volatile. We capture this by assuming that expectations are …