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The paper studies the ways an economy working under a currency board could adjust when capital inflows stop suddenly. Six alternative solutions to restore the economic equilibrium are available when the sudden stop comes: a recession could push the prices of non-tradable goods down, a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561288
Estonia has had a currency board arrangement (CBA) for more than 10 years. Due to the successful performance of the Estonian economy under a CBA the current position of the Bank of Estonia is to maintain its exchange rate regime until full participation in the EMU, inter alia, during Estonia’s...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561193
The monetary system in Estonia is based on the currency board arrangement with German Mark. The strong commitments and rule-based features of currency board imply that there is no active monetary policy in Estonia – all necessarily monetary djustments are left to the market forces. Under fixed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005076744
equities fail the test as inflation hedges, as had been quite widely believed, but that they take so long to pass. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124935
This memorandum provides a scenario analysis of the likely macroeconomic impacts of a limited foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in New Zealand. It is worth stressing at the outset that it is not a forecast, nor a ‘central’ scenario, but an exercise to gauge broad magnitudes and to trace...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556174
-based framework for the analysis of stochastic volatility models. A highly effective method is developed that samples all the …. This approach is compared with several alternative methods using real data. The paper also develops simulation- based …-nested likelihood ratios and Bayes factors is also investigated. These methods are used to compare the fit of stochastic volatility and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556396
two basic ways of assessing future inflation: forecast and simulation. A forecast is the most likely picture of the future … differentiating between a forecast and a simulation, we discuss the pros and cons of using the two ways of assessing future inflation …Inflation targeting is a regime based to a great extent on communication and, more specifically, on using and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561292
A simple transform of a standard uniform variate is given for simulation of the maximum attained by a Wiener process …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561500
In this paper a dynamic stochastic model is used to simulate the matching process between skills demand and supply in a segmented labor market of a typical developing area where labor market frictions are pervasive. We address the issue of the emergence of a “bad” outcome i.e. equilibrium...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561504
A methodology of comparative analysis of evolutionary models is proposed. The main aim of this proposition is to identify to what extend different models can be called ‘evolutionary ones’. Each model is analysed by searching for answers to following questions:  Is the model dynamical one?...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561798