Can scoring models help microfinance lenders in poor countries as much as they have helped credit-card lenders in rich countries? I model the probability that loans from a microlender in Bolivia had arrears of 15 days or more. Although arrears in microfinance depend on many factors difficult to...

This paper presents a scoring model that predicts the risk of drop-out for borrowers at a microfinance lender in Bolivia. Drop-out risk was greater for women, manufacturers, newer borrowers, and those with more arrears. Out-of-sample tests suggest that scoring may help microfinance lenders to...

In this paper we have combined fundamental analysis and contingent claim analysis into a hybrid model of credit risk measurement. We have extended the standard Merton approach to estimate a new risk neutral distance to default metric, assuming a more complex capital structure, adjusting for...

We extend the credit risk valuation framework introduced by Gatfaoui (2003) to stochastic volatility models. We state a general setting for valuing risky debt in the light of systematic risk and idiosyncratic risk, which are known to affect each risky asset in the financial market. The option...

Farmer Mac is the GSE charged with creating a secondary market in loans backed by agricultural real estate. The Farm Credit Administration (FCA) has estimated a credit risk model for agricultural mortgages. This model is a key determinant of Farmer Mac’s risk based capital (RBC) requirement....

This paper examines the role and determinants of collateral in emerging markets compared to mature ones. Analyzing a data set of 560 credit files of Thai commercial banks, we find that both the incidence and degree of collateralization are higher there than in developed markets. Thai banks use...

The purpose of this paper is to see whether and how G-10 banks have complied with the 1988 Basel Accord. The interest of this study lies in the fact that the standardized approach to credit risk in the New Basel Accord is conceptually similar to the 1988 agreement. However, very little is known...

In this paper, by applying the potential approach to characterizing default risk, a class of simple affine and quadratic models is presented to provide a unifying framework of valuing both risk-free and defaultable bonds. It has been shown that the established models can accommodate the existing...

Reliability has been largely applied to industrial systems in order to study the various possibilities of systems’ failure. The goal is to establish the chain of events leading to any system’s failure, namely the top event. Looking for the minimal paths leading to any system’s fault allows...

In this paper we compare market prices of credit default swaps with model prices. We show that a simple reduced form model with a constant recovery rate outperforms the market practice of directly comparing bonds' credit spreads to default swap premiums. We find that the model works well for...