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New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics

Jr, Thomas M Fullerton; Araki, Eiichi - EconWPA - 2004

An overview of modeling and forecasting methodologies for price trends and other macroeconomic variables in Latin America is provided. Five approaches are reviewed within the time series and econometric traditions from which they are selected. Each method is reviewed within the context of data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005118751

The Estimation of the NAIRU and the Effect of Permanent Sectoral Employment Reallocation. The Italian Evidence.

Maro, Vincenzo Di - EconWPA - 2002

This paper analyses the NAIRU making use of a cointegrated VAR and of Italian labour market data. We show that a cointegrated VAR represents a statistically adequate (using Aris Spanos's terminology) approach to the estimation of the NAIRU. This is an effective way to overcome several problems...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005062554

Management von Mitarbeiterrisiken in Unternehmen Theoretische Grundlagen und Entwicklung eines praxistauglichen Erfassungs- und Auswertungsverfahrens

Dannenberg, Henry - EconWPA - 2005

Die vorliegende Arbeit stellt einen Beitrag zur Bewertung von Mitarbeiterrisiken in Unternehmen dar. Es werden Ursachen determiniert, die einen Mitarbeiterausfall zur Folge haben. Diese werden auf ihre Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit sowie möglicher Schäden hin untersucht. Darauf aufbauend wird...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005118593

Agricultural policies and farm structures - agent-based simulation and application to EU-policy reform

Happe, Kathrin - EconWPA - 2005

impacts on regional structural change. At the centre of the thesis is the development of the spatial and dynamic simulation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005118932

The Poverty Concentration Implications of Housing Subsidies: A Cellular Automata Thought Experiment

Jewell, Kevin - EconWPA - 2005

Looking at data from HUD’s low income housing tax credit database from 1987 to 2001, we examine how the US tax credit program has concentrated poverty in neighborhoods by offering advantages to developing low income housing projects in low income census tracts. We then use a simple Cellular...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005119003

Dynamic paths of the European economy: simulations using an EU aggregate model

Bagnai, Alberto; Carlucci, Francesco - EconWPA - 2002

Using an aggregate econometric model for the EU we investigate by simulation methods some dynamic paths of the European …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005119065

The macroeconomic impacts of a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak: an information paper for Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet

Black, Melleny; Gereben, Áron; Woolford, Ian - EconWPA - 2004

This memorandum provides a scenario analysis of the likely macroeconomic impacts of a limited foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in New Zealand. It is worth stressing at the outset that it is not a forecast, nor a ‘central’ scenario, but an exercise to gauge broad magnitudes and to trace...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556174

STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY: LIKELIHOOD INFERENCE AND COMPARISON WITH ARCH MODELS

Kim, Sangjoon; Shephard, Neil; Chib, Siddhartha - EconWPA - 1996

. This approach is compared with several alternative methods using real data. The paper also develops simulation- based …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556396

Inflation Targeting: to Forecast or to Simulate

Skorepa, Michal; Kotlan, Viktor - EconWPA - 2003

two basic ways of assessing future inflation: forecast and simulation. A forecast is the most likely picture of the future …. In a forecast, all agents are assumed to behave in the most likely way. A simulation, on the other hand, is the most … differentiating between a forecast and a simulation, we discuss the pros and cons of using the two ways of assessing future inflation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561292

A "One-line" Simulator for Maxima or Minima on Drifting Brownian Paths

Abrahamson, Allen - EconWPA - 2002

A simple transform of a standard uniform variate is given for simulation of the maximum attained by a Wiener process …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561500