advantage in the conflict or that the joint production process exhibits increasing returns. Nor is there any presumption that … peace prevails among the alliance members. In this setting, the analysis finds that, due to the familiar free-rider problem …, the formation of alliances tends to reduce the severity of the conflict over the contestable resource. Furthermore …

dependence upon primary commodity exports and a large diaspora substantially increase the risk of conflict. Inconsistent with the … grievance theory, greater ethnic and religious diversity reduce the risk of conflict. The results are robust to correction for …

terms of economic utility and in terms of peace than in ^Qcontinuing conflict^R and ^Qobstructed trade^R scenarios. …Recent studies emphasize the occurrence of conflict as a rational economic activity as well as production and exchange …

This paper considers a partial equilibrium model of conflict where two asymmetric, rational and risk-neutral opponents … conflict in order to appropriate a positive fraction of a stake. An institutional constraint is modelled through an exogenously … conflicting agents are willing to commit themselves to ease the conflict joining an institutional setting they do not ‘disarm …

made in eight conflict situations. These were difficult forecasting problems; the 32% accuracy of the unaided experts was …

forecast outcomes in conflict situations. I first define what is meant here by conflict situations. Next, I describe …