Agent-based models of market dynamics must strike a compromise between the structural assumptions that represent the trading mechanism and the behavioral assumptions that describe the rules by which traders take their decisions. We present a structurally detailed model of an order- driven stock...

The business media play an active role in influencing stock prices. Statistically significant excess returns at the time of the publication of stock recommendations have been documented many times. Frequently these abnormal gains begin to accumulate long before the publication date. In most...

A widely held belief in financial economics suggests that stock prices always adequately reflect all available information. Price movements away from fundamentals are assumed to occur only infrequently, if at all. „False“ prices are supposed to be corrected by the counter-actions of...

Using annual and quarterly data since 1952, we estimate a fundamentals- based empirical model for the earning-price ratio of US stocks. The key fundamental-variable is a time-varying discount rate, decomposed into a time-varying measure for the real interest rate and the equity risk premium....

Using one of the key property of copulas that they remain invariant under an arbitrary monotonous change of variable, we investigate the null hypothesis that the dependence between financial assets can be modeled by the Gaussian copula. We find that most pairs of currencies and pairs of major...

We present a simple model of a stock market where a random communication structure between agents gives rise to a heavy tails in the distribution of stock price variations in the form of an exponentially truncated power-law, similar to distributions observed in recent empirical studies of high...

The Value-at-Risk (VAR) measure is based on only the second moment of a rates of return distribution. It is an insufficient risk performance measure, since it ignores both the higher moments of the pricing distributions, like skewness and kurtosis, and all the fractional moments resulting from...

This paper studies the performance of four market protocols with regard to allocative efficiency and other performance criteria such as volume or volatility. We examine batch auctions, continuous double auctions, specialist dealerships, and a hybrid of these last two. All protocols are...

A simple transform of a standard uniform variate is given for simulation of the maximum attained by a Wiener process with drift, conditioned upon the level attained by the process over an arbitrary time interval. The transform arises directly from inversion of the joint distribution function of...

Numerous empirical studies have demonstrated that asset prices react rapidly, if at all, to news published in the mass media. In many cases, the information has been discounted and prices have already moved upon primary publication through news wires, press releases or firm announcements. Any...