Euler equation models represent an important class of macroeconomic systems. Our research on the Leeper and Sims Euler equations macroeconomic model reveals the existence of singularity-induced bifurcations, when the model's parameters are within a confidence region about the parameter...

This paper documents a new stylized fact of the U.S. greater macroeconomic stability of the last two decades or so. Using 131 monthly time series, three popular statistical methods and the forecasts of the Federal Reserve's Green book and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we show that the...

This paper was produced for the El-Naschie Symposium on Nonlinear Dynamics in Shanghai in December 2005. In this paper we provide a review of the literature with respect to fluctuations in real systems and chaos. In doing so, we contrast the order and organization hypothesis of real systems with...

This paper reports on unsolved problems in our research on testing for nonlinearity and chaos and for designing bifurcation stabilization policies conditional upon macroeconomic models.

This paper investigates the asymmetric effects of monetary shocks when the=20 impact of monetary policy on real activity works through state-dependent=20 variables. We use a nonlinear model, the multiple regime smooth transition=20 autoregressive model, that allows the effects of shocks to vary...

This paper considers a sticky price model with a cash-in-advance constraint where agents forecast inflation rates with the help of econometric models. Agents use least squares learning to estimate two competing models of which one is consistent with rational expectations once learning is...

This paper analyses the 1980s Latin American debt crisis in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico and, in particular, the influence of cumulative processes at work in its early and final stages. The paper is organised in three sections. The first examines the crisis<92> features in the three countries, and...</92>

Although linearly interpolated series are often used in economics, little has been done to examine the effects of interpolation on time series properties and on statistical inference. We show that linear interpolation of a trend tationary series superimposes a ‘periodic’ structure on the...